Wise Plc – The more we look, the more we like
October 2024 (670p)
This summer we researched and published our work on Wise plc. Post which we have now spent some time with the company’s IR/finance team. What follows are a few further reflections.
Lessons on customer obsession from the sage
As we have stated in recent pieces, we think a core tenant of this job as we get older (and wiser we hope) is pattern recognition. Indeed, this was how we framed/described Wise in our first piece.
Sometimes there is also a juxtaposition of events that occur prompting a researcher to think more clearly. The day after we spoke to Wise and were writing up our notes on the company, this interview by Buffett popped into one of our media feeds. Whilst we have seen most Buffett interviews before it is easy to forget things. This one we think particularly interesting for those assessing companies from a qualitative angle. In many ways it is more Nick Sleep in its messaging than traditional Buffett. Using Rose Blumkin (Nebraska Furniture Mart) and the founder of Enterprise rental cars as examples Buffett explains the importance of a highly customer-centric approach.
These examples are interesting because both are commodity industries (Car rental + furniture sales) so the only way to get any sort of lasting competitive edge was through a highly customer centric business model. We strongly suggest readers listen to this speech. The relevant section starts at the two-minute mark. Buffett summarises the power of those models by saying:
“You need a genuine desire day in day out to delight the customer. I’ve seen a lot of businesses, but I’ve never seen one that focused on delighting the customer that didn’t succeed.” Warren Buffett, emphasis ours
Wise reflections
We think this a nice preamble for what we are learning on our journey to better understand Wise.
The competitive environment
The biggest risk we see to Wise plc is that there may be others building similar networks with similar efficiencies being created as we write. With few competitors quoted and thus imperfect information available this is a hard area to get disclosure, and thus clarity, on. Our learnings in this area post discussions with Wise/our own further reflections are as follows:
- Revolut’s focus is seemingly on expanding its banking product reach and on growing ARPU. It is not driven by a desire to build its own FX network, nor by any efficiency drive for lower unit economics that can be passed on.
- Revolut’s pricing (i.e. FX charges) is at a similar level to Wise, but promotional, not EDLP in nature as Wise is. I.e. they are currently undercutting Wise by a few basis points ($/€ at 0.275% vs Wise’s new rate at 0.28%). But Wise do not think Revolut’s unit-cost base supports this, so assumes it is cross subsidising.
- Revolut uses Currency Cloud for its outsourced FX. It was established in 2012 and is now owned by Visa. It handles roughly a third of the volume Wise does.
- JPM/Citigroup have good, efficient global FX networks that their large corporate clients benefit from. Almost all other banks (HSBC included) have patchwork networks of old-fashioned connected banking relationships. These are inefficient and might mean an FX trade take a few days to be credited to the target account.
- Businesses like Remity are more expensive than Wise and largely about cash delivery rather than Digital FX transfers.
Holland reflections on this
If we are extrapolating the success of the Wise Network, hoping for decades of c.20% compound growth then the greatest threat to that assumption is the Wise Network’s future lack of dominance.
- The wholesale usage of Wise’s Network (i.e. by a great many other banks) we think
a) Gives it greater absolute scale therefore lower unit-costs
b) Also acts as a reference point for investors to its efficiency and network scale I.e. Monza, N26 and NU bank + large banks in Japan, Korea and Indonesia have decided to use the Wise Network. They have clearly concluded that this route is both better than their existing networks and something they cannot easily/want to build themselves
- We learnt from our work on Grenke that having a network that can process credit transactions is one thing, but having one that can be profitable processing smaller transactions is a very very different proposition. Being able to be profitable with money laundering requirements on transactions at a value of c.£2,000 is very different to one that can claim to be efficient when handling £200k transaction sizes. Wise is profitable with these low FX transaction sizes
- We suspect this is where any difference between a Citi or JPM and Wise Networks might lie in the future. Crucially a network that is efficient and profitable at small transaction sizes can be scaled for larger sums. It does not work the other way round
- Separately, when larger global banks look to use networks outside of their own for better FX execution and cost whose are they going to use. We suspect HSBC, Barclays, Bank America et al would rather use Wise or Currency Cloud, not JPM or Citi, even if such networks were one day offered wholesale
- As most banks take a 5-6% spread out of FX (2.5%-3% either side) we assume this to be a silent profit pool for many banks. But maybe it is not. Partly because the banks only have old systems and processes that require manual inputs and checks to follow up on any delivery delays. Also, because they are not specialists is this area so likely have low volume throughputs vs the staff/systems required to process them. This might explain why despite the high spreads taken, many banks have been happy to outsource FX using the Wise Network instead.
- Wise’s Network position looks to be a classic niche market position. Solving a small problem with a high quality, low-cost solution offered to customers (banks and businesses) with far bigger issues.
- The reason the Wise platform take up is faster at neo-banks is
a) Their newer tech stacks make it easier for them to add new software/services
b) They are more proactive towards giving customers better products and services, i.e. want to be innovative
Wise’s customer obsession
The discussion above and our wider view of the banking sector shows that Wise’s customer obsession is very rare inside banking. Clearly this is true when compared to long-standing banking incumbents that control most market share. There are new banking alternative offerings and many of them are based on product innovation and doing a better job than incumbents. Wise’s product offering we think stands out, even against them, due to an unusual combination of factors.
- Its offering is both retail and wholesale, thus building more scale than just a retail only offering
- It is truly global
- Is niche in its focus, and the product innovation it develops are all related to that niche
- Is very focused on finding genuine units cost efficiencies and then passing these on to the customer. I.e. is following a Scale-economy-shared model
With our 2024 enthusiasm for Wise and Nubank we are now very interested in alternative finance offerings worldwide. Simply put we need to understand their competitors and any threats to their growth. Our work thus far suggests to us that these two companies are special, however. The gap between their cultures (highly customer centric, efficiency and innovation driven) and todays banking incumbents is frankly enormous.
We see this combination of factors as a powerful driver of each company’s longer-term future. We are now actively seeking evidence to disprove/challenge this theory mostly via the presence future competitors. As of today, we see alternative banks (like Monza and Revolut). We are not however finding companies with the cost, innovation and customer centricity of Wise/Nu. Buffett’s observation above that customer centric companies rarely fail to be successful we think an interesting observation.
Wise Innovation
Innovation is seemingly a centre of gravity for Wise plc. They are very focused on “what do our customers want”. Crucially, unlike Revolut, Wise is not expanding into adjacent areas that is does not feel are close to its core. The main driver of product innovations that are brought to market by Wise is “what will drive greater cross border volumes for the company”. Whilst all successful product innovation is often admired by investors, we are pleased to hear of this focus.
Wise has clearly articulated the end game of the network scale it seeks, articulating how the power will accrue to the operator with the greatest end market share. As such it is making sure all its innovation help it achieve that goal. I.e. a Flywheel of more scale, lower units costs, cheaper prices, more/happier customers. Jeff Bezos and his napkin drawing would approve we suspect:
Fig 1. Jeff Bezos Amazon flywheel sketch
Source: Working backwards by Colin Bryar/Bill Carr
We think it is important for investors to realise the importance of Wise’s past innovations and just how recently such products were launched. The Wise Account and the Wise Network offered to other banks were both innovations only released in the last three years. Wise’s multi-currency invoicing is more recent even than that. The potential benefits such products offer to their target markets we think are enormous. Just these three innovations alone could become huge profit sources for the company in their own right, without any further innovations.
Wise: The SME’s friend
We have spent a little time of late thinking through how Wise benefits SME companies, doing so through the eyes of our own company, Holland Advisors. The appendix of this note shows a recent payment we made and how it was treated by our bank (Big Red Bank Plc!). Comparing it with how it would have been treated by Wise were we to be set up with them. We named this study/example “Dirty Rotten Scoundrels” in honour of the big banks and the FX fees companies like us are forced to pay. This shows that we would have saved £181 on our £3,000 payment had we used Wise. We estimate that we make, or receive, 16 such Euro or Dollar payment per year, implying a potential c.£2,500 annual saving.
Running a prudently financed company as we do, we keep quite a lot of spare cash in our bank account (which earns no interest). Our bank does not offer an easy sweep facility, nor a simple ability to buy gilts or other money market funds. Wise does! Were our current balance to earn Wise type money market rates annually we would earn c.£5,000 of interest that we do not receive today. These combined £7,500 savings are a huge sum for a small business and can be achieved with minimal effort. (NB: FCA rules do not permit Wise to pay ‘interest’ to their UK current account holders currently. However, a simple button allows even UK Wise account holders to put cash into a daily liquidity fund, BlackRock’s UK money market fund. This currently pays 4.46% in Sterling after Wise has taken a 0.46% fee and BlackRock 0.1%).
Multi-currency invoicing
Wise’ recent innovation of multi-currency invoicing is a product/service we think quite brilliant. Our Dirty Rotten Scoundrels section shows what happens when we as a GBP based company receives a supplier invoice in US dollars. We have to deliver dollars to our supplier, but because these funds come from our Sterling account its costs us c.2.5% more than the invoiced amount. A Wise account helps to circumvent this.
Wise multi-currency invoicing is the next step. It allows us to bill our clients in their domestic currency (using the mid-market or agreed exchange rate) then receive these monies in that currency. We can then convert such funds at the full exchange rate inside our Wise account, saving ourselves c.2% of the invoiced amount in the process. Holland Advisors has some receipts and payments in Dollars/Euros, but not many. We estimate a total value of £120,000 hence a 2.5% saving of c.£2,500. Most other companies will save far more. Today this is a real frictional cost being incurred by almost all SMEs worldwide. Multinational companies have the banking relationships to avoid such payment costs, but up until now SMEs did not.
- We ask readers to consider a £1m turnover business that has 50% of sales outside its home currency and buys 50% of cogs outside as well
- Let’s assume it makes 30% Gross margins and 10% PBT margins
- This means its sells £500k abroad, but also sources £350k of its COGS abroad too
- A 2% saving on £850k of transactions is £17,000!
- For a company that expects to make £100k in PBT pa, this is an enormous saving
- It is also illustrative of how draining on SME finances large banking FX spreads are
- Clearly drawing up invoices in numerous currencies is not a hard function to create, but having a single multicurrency account that such funds can be remitted to is.
- The power and importance of this function is far less visible to US based SMEs, and investors we suggest. Versus those in Europe and Asia. This is why Europe is where such innovation is coming from.
An owner manager with Plenty of SCA’s
We have written to Kristo and would very much like to sit down with him. From what we have heard/read he is our archetypal owner manager. The business he has built is working its way through many of the SCA’s we admire in a similar fashion to Netflix. Wise as a disrupter has gained network scale and now is using this to drive scale economies for customers benefit. Such a starting point combined with a constant drive for innovation and a customer obsession looks set to take the company a long way. We are fans.
With kind regards
Andrew Hollingworth
The Directors and employees of Holland Advisors may have a beneficial interest in some of the companies mentioned in this report via holdings in a fund that they also act as managers to.
Appendix: Dirty rotten Scoundrels
Below we highlight what life is like for a small business and the banking cost incurred.
Holland received an invoice from Bloomberg for $9,000
- Holland instructed Big Red Bank X to pay this invoice from our Sterling account
- We were told it will cost £25 to make this transfer and were then given a £ amount that this would cost us. This was £7,180 with a £25 fee added on top.
- NB. Nowhere on the Big Red Bank account (paper statement or live) does it show the rate this equates to. Indeed the $9,000 dollar amount is not shown on statement either, only the £7,180
- Our accounting system Xero (and our 30y old calculator!) however can work this out for us.
- $9,000/£7,180 = 1.25348.
The below chart shows how this compares with the spot rate on that day.
Source: Bloomberg
What is notable is:
- The bank rate we are offered/given does not disclose the spread it is from spot rate. In this case it was fairly typical 2.5% (Average spot rate for day of 1.2855/1.25348)
- Not only is this trade low risk but it is also arguably zero risk as the majority of Big Red bank FX undertaken in any day will be matched against another on the other side
- The way banks report these trades suggest the fee for the transaction is £25 (reasonable on first glace). In fact, the all in cost is £204(spread + fee). Far less acceptable!
How would this transaction look with Wise
Firstly the company is transparent about giving you the spot rate, and also on the fee it is then charging on top.
- Wise average take rate for FX is 0.58% now. When we checked this out on a few transactions this is broadly what we found for Indian Rupee to Sterling (i.e. 0.6%). For Euro or Dollar to Sterling the fee was 0.33%
- If we had instructed Wise to deliver $9,000 to Bloomberg on 25th July this would have been the result:
- $9,000/1.2855 = £7,001 is what our account would be debited by. With Wise disclosing to us what the spot rate was. Wise would then have charged us 0.33% for making this transaction… or £23
Total cost of delivering $9,000 on 25th July 2024 =
= £7,205 (£7,180 +£25) with Big Red bank Plc
= £7,024 (£7,001+£23)
Difference = £181 or 2.6% of the transaction value. It must be remembered that such % spreads are charged on both side of the FX spot rate. The result being that Holland has paid 2.6% more than it needed to, to deliver dollars. At exactly the same moment, ABC Engineering will have also paid 2.6% to receive dollars… our dollars most likely.
We were debited £7,205 for the privilege. They likely only received $9,000/1.3176 = £6,805 (after £25 fee). The difference is £400 (c.5.7% of $9,000). This level of frictional cost is being incurred by SME business all over the world, every single day.
The future will be different
Holland is lucky in the sense that it need not make that may payment of receipts in single year. That said we probably make c.14-16 with quarterly Bloomberg bills and some receipts. £181 x15= £2,715!
Today we all think this lack of transparency by the banks as the norm. But in an age of digital money and low-cost execution this is gouging. Pure and simple. Consumers with the help of companies like Wise will gradually see this and react…. with their feet. Regulators too will one day have these opaque profit pools in their sights. The puck today might be at the feet of Lloyds, NatWest and Santander and the like today. We think we can clearly see where the puck is going.
Wise looks to be the champion that can save consumers and businesses real money that they should not be paying in a digital money world. Like the others deflationary consumer champions that came before it (Amazon, Spotify and Netflix) we think it will be well rewarded.
Disclaimer
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