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Oct 2012: Ryanair – War of Attrition

October 21, 2012

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Ryanair – War of Attrition

Oct 2012 (€4.56)

 

It is all too easy to dismiss stocks based on preconceived notions. Ryanair is a great example of a business that, were it in any other sector, would be deemed a clear ‘Buy’. Of particular note is:

  • A unique business model with structural cost advantages: Ryanair’s unit prices are -23% below EasyJet’s unit costs. Compounded sales growth of 21% and average ROEs of 15% since 2002 demonstrate the power of the Ryanair model thus far.
  • The relentless (and self-imposed) suppression of Ryanair’s prices in recent years point to some untapped pricing power today: Yields have been below unit costs since 2009.
  • Our initial concern that slowing capacity growth (highlighted by the 2010 special-dividend) might have been an indication of a business model that is ‘cashing in’ were unfounded. The business model and management team seem as robust as ever.
  • We conclude that the dominant and most successful businesses – especially those within commoditised sectors – employ similar business tactics and strategy even across sectors. Our work on retailers like Colruyt thus provided helpful parallels.
  • Given the relative youth of Ryanair’s business, SouthWest’s 25-year head-start suggests that further organic growth is very plausible. Few companies have this organic growth and return prospects at a starting P/E of 11.5x historic earnings.

Fig.1: The extent of Ryanair’s yield and (especially) cost suppression might surprise you

 Source: Capital IQ, EasyJet analyst presentation

Ought We Be Admitted to AA (‘Airlines Anonymous’)?

Are we mad? Buffett’s caustic views on the airline industry are well known and yet we dare to consider one. In the interests of opening client eyes to would be franchises on this side of the Atlantic however we must allow ourselves some latitude. Additionally our previous work on JD Wetherspoon showed that it is indeed possible to find good franchises in sectors which, on aggregate find it tough to make compelling returns.

It is with such pragmatism that we approached Ryanair – a disruptive but innovative business with impressive returns that dominates what is unarguably a gruesome industry. Whilst Ryanair is a well-known and ought to be a well-analysed business, our experience in identifying quality franchises across diverse industries allows us, we hope, to put Ryanair’s business model in a new and possibly more useful context for investors.

SouthWest Airlines is deemed an obvious comparison and with a twenty-five year headstart, possibly offers comfort to Ryanair’s growth prospects over the next decade. Less obvious perhaps are the similarities with some of the great high-volume global retail franchises – in particular our favourite European discounter, Colruyt and JD Wetherspoon. Structurally lower capacity growth in the European airline industry does not mean that Ryanair’s business model is broken or has peaked, as its valuation (EV/EBIT of 9.3x) might imply. Rather it is Ryanair’s relative growth prospects – effectively its market share of traffic – that will determine the sustainability of its business moat we believe. In short this is a business that ticks an awful lot of the boxes we look for: It has wide moat, allocates capital very well and is run by a hugely capable founder who is highly incentivised – if it were in any other sector, it would be a ‘Buy’.

Fig.2: Ryanair’s Return on Capital – not bad at all (especially for an airline)

Source: Holland Advisors 

Ryanair – A Diamond In The Rough

“Ryanair is probably the most robust airline model we have encountered”  – Eric Hild, Boeing’s Director of Sales (UK & IRL), 1998

Ryanair’s dominance of its sector and its good returns come from a savvy understanding of how to thrive in a commodity business. Just like Belgian retailer Colruyt, it runs the business for volume whilst keeping costs low in absolute terms and importantly prices always lower than competitors in relative terms. The virtuous circle of greater traffic that results from such a strategy is very clear from the company’s historic financials (see appendix).

Consequently, the question foremost on our mind (post the 2010 special dividend announcement and capacity slowdown) was: What is happening to the Ryanair business model? Does a greater cash payout and slower growth imply a weakening of it? Interestingly the current 11.5x PE when compared to its past valuation and most likely growth implies Mr Market is questioning the model too.

Might a mature Ryanair now become less aggressive in pricing and become more mellow (and therefore less attractive due to the likely reduced industry dominance that would result)? Might a slowdown in capacity growth ultimately narrow its business moat? Having looked at the business closely, the answer it seems to us is, “far from it”. In contrast, we suggest the Ryanair franchise remains a formidable one to compete against and its moat of industry beating prices have not diminished despite the capacity growth slowdown. Meanwhile both returns for shareholder and growth remain impressive.

Fig.3: Volume (ASM[1]) growth is key to building the moat

Source: Capital IQ, Holland Advisors

Enjoys the characteristics of a great franchise

Ryanair shares many of the basic characteristics of the best business franchises that we have identified over the years. In essence, it is:

  • Customer-focused: admittedly not in the classic sense (!), but certainly in the sense of low prices. As we show later, the extent to which Ryanair is slashing its fares (i.e. passing-on its cost reductions) is unparalleled in the industry and is central to its dominant position.
  • Competitor-focused: dominating what is a commodity business, Ryanair focusses exclusively on volume market-share to reduce unit costs and seems consistently willing to forego margin in the short-term to squeeze out competitors whose cost positions are clearly far less favourable.
  • Returns-focused: it has a good record in capital allocation and like many of our favourite stocks enjoys substantial negative working capital inflows boosting ‘shareholder earnings’ and returns further by reducing the cost of growth.

Furthermore, as we discuss later, Ryanair continues to demonstrate its innate ability to thrive in a cyclical downturn. In the past, this was in clear evidence through the notorious Boeing deal in 2002. The counter-cyclical dealmaking prowess of O Leary is also in evidence today not least in the aggressive expansion in Eastern Europe but also in the Aer Lingus bid wrangling and more recently with the attempt by Ryanair to take a stake in Stansted (BAA have now excluded them from the sale process). We suspect that O Leary has one more big aircraft deal left in him as CEO and the announced memorandum of understanding with a fledgling Chinese manufacturer last year maybe part of that process.

A unique business in a commodity industry

Ryanair’s business stands out a mile in the airline industry for many reasons: its price positioning, its aggression, its ‘lack of frills’, its media presence and innovation. Virtually all of these attributes continue to serve shareholders well but most interesting to us is its business model. The chart above shows the extent of Ryanair’s volume growth – especially notable in the context of close competitor EasyJet. We show later that it has been this focus on volume growth that has facilitated Ryanair’s unparalleled low-cost position, which in turn drives high load-factors leading to a virtuous circle and ultimately the profile of profit growth seen on the right-hand chart above. Munger’s ‘Northern Pike’ model seems particularly appropriate again.

Given our understanding of what drives Ryanair’s competitive advantage, we had initially been uneasy that yield growth in the last two years might indicate less price aggression and therefore a narrowing of Ryanair’s competitive positioning. It is a big comfort to us that in fact the company continues to have no qualms in selectively slashing prices dramatically where it is facing new competitive pressures. Paradoxically, this continued pricing aggression might seem worrying to some observers who are not tuned-into a discounter business model and are looking for price rises to compensate for slowing traffic. For us, such aggression is evidence of the sustainability/growth of their market share and ultimately the Ryanair franchise.

But Perhaps The Ryanair Model Is Now Broken?

“Ryanair doesn’t put prices up, what we do is we manage our load factors. We want to fill 85% of our seats on a year-round basis.” – Michael O Leary, January 2012 (emphasis ours)

The second leg-down in capacity growth this decade (shown below on the left) had caused us to question how the Ryanair business model – which centres on volume growth – might be being adapted to such a new operating environment. One apparent consequence (seen on the right) is that yield deflation has recently moderated (even turning into inflation) prompting many to suggest that a new period of fare and yield growth might persist. Context is important here however given that Ryanair’s yield deflation was -10% per annum compounded from 2000 to 2010 (with 2010 marking the low-point for yields): 2012 yields (+11% YoY) bring yields back to just 2009 levels.

Note that current unit yields (per ASM[2]) are actually below equivalent unit costs – notwithstanding the excellent profits shown above. This would suggest that scheduled flights (excluding ancillary services) have lately become lossmaking! Fuel prices have played a part in this but the extent to which Ryanair has resisted major fare increases is very notable.

Fig.4: Capacity growth has slowed (left). Have flights become a ‘loss-leader’ (right)?

Source: Capital IQ, Holland Advisors

On the point of the recent yield inflation, it is important to be clear – there is a big difference between raising prices (and dangerously allowing your moat to narrow) and flexing pricing according to the elasticity which arises from slower capacity growth and higher price competitor offerings. Ryanair’s recent yield growth trends are in our opinion not indicative of a business getting greedy but of one adapting to reduced industry capacity growth. What remains important is that Ryanair continues to outgrow the competition in traffic (maintaining or further improving its relative unit cost advantage to competitors). Whilst is it hard to define Ryanair’s addressable market (European traffic excluding the major hubs), we can see on a micro-level that Ryanair is not allowing low-cost operators to gain traffic on new routes.

A pragmatist (and an innovator)

Our sense is that the management has pragmatically adapted to the new environment of consolidation and capacity reductions across Europe by passively allowing yields to trend upwards (off a low base) but remaining aggressive versus the competition where appropriate. The very recent yield inflation is a function of the market capacity situation easing as opposed to a change in the Ryanair strategy.

We note the analogy with cruise-line business Carnival – another market leader in a fuel-intensive industry – sometimes it is logical to allow prices to nudge upwards as long as the relative edge is retained over the competition. The consensus view seems to be holding-out for a medium-term structural uplift in yields as a compensation for the aforementioned slowing traffic growth. What would make us worried is if the reduced capacity expansion in the industry caused Ryanair to allow fares to rise excessively. The early signs of this would likely be traffic market share stagnation or losses – crucially, neither are in evidence.

Intriguingly, while Ryanair reported an average 14% EBIT margin and 14% ROE’s from 2010-2012, the company’s cost disclosures, as shown in Fig.4 and Fig.5, suggest that it has actually been losing money in its scheduled flights business with all of its group profits technically coming from its ‘Ancillary Services’ which is enjoying stellar growth (below). This is partly due to accounting definitions (for example, Ryanair currently only allows one 10kg piece of luggage so that revenues from ‘excess luggage’ are logically much higher today than five years ago when they would have been included in scheduled flight revenues), but this remains a key insight into the business strategy – fill the seats and aggressively drive revenue per passenger. This is not unique to Ryanair of course – EasyJet employs similar tactics, but crucially EasyJet achieves this via much higher flight prices. Unlike Ryanair, EasyJet does not disclose the operating costs of its ancillary business. Our point remains that Ryanair has been very successful innovating and driving new revenue streams that didn’t exist some years ago. Phil Fisher would be impressed.

Fig.5: Innovation or Accounting Gimmick? A bit of both: ‘Ancillary Sales’[3] drive profits

Source: Ryanair, Capital IQ, Holland Advisors 

Yet for all the analysis of yields, the man at the top or the organisation itself has not it seems lost an ounce of the brutality that defines their dominance within the sector. This is evidenced by this comment on how it it is dealing with competition in Eastern Europe:

“one of the kind of the unique features of the last quarter has been we’ve opened up some new air — we’ve moved into bases like Budapest and Hungary. 2 weeks ago, we opened up in Warsaw Modlin. Over the news, I think in both of those airports is that Wizz Air, which has kind of seen itself as being central Europe’s low-fare airline, has for the first time decided it wants to go toe to toe with us at those airports, so be it. Everybody’s entitled to make some stupid decisions, but it means that we’re having some very low-fare competition with Wizz Air over there. That is resulting in very high-load factors. But our competitive position at both Warsaw and Budapest is – our fares will be 50% cheaper than Wizz Air’s. It means we’re offering some routes in Poland from Warsaw at the moment at the fare of PLN 1” – Michael O’Leary, August 2012 (emphasis ours).

Scope for upside to yields: Ryanair’s yields are -23% below EasyJet’s costs!!

Whilst we are very clear on the importance of Ryanair retaining its relative pricing policy, we also have to acknowledge that the company possibly has some untapped pricing power that could allow yields to continue to trend upwards. This is more obvious when one puts the Ryanair unit yield and costs in the context of a peer such as Easyjet.

The charts below show this clearly (note that in this chart the Ryanair yields in this chart include ancillary services for comparison purposes). For context, EasyJet has an average yield-cost spread of [€9.32c-€8.05c] compared to Ryanair’s [€6.2c-€5.2c] on a LFL basis (i.e. including Ryanair’s Ancilliary revenue). As a reminder, Ryanair’s headline unit yields (€6.2c on this basis) are -23% below EasyJet’s headline unit costs (€8.05c). We suggest that few commodity industries have a dominant business within it that enjoys such a marked cost advantage, JD Wetherspoon excepted maybe.

Fig.6: Scope for upside to Ryanair yields[4] – without getting greedy (or reducing the moat)

Source: Ryanair, Capital IQ, Holland Advisors

The Market Leader, But Yet A Price Follower….Sound Familiar?

Most great businesses are actually little more than clones of other great businesses. We see evidence of this insight in many of the best franchises that we find. It makes sense to us that the dominant and most successful businesses especially within commoditised sectors might employ similar business tactics and strategy. In that sense, investors in many of the best high-volume retailers such as Wal-Mart, Costco, Tesco, Wetherspoon or Greggs will see many commonalities within Ryanair. But it is with Belgian hard-discount retailer Colruyt where we see the greatest similarities to the Ryanair model – especially in their pricing strategies.

As we wrote in our first research piece on Colruyt:

“The group’s culture is very simple… offer the lowest prices to customers and be as efficient as possible. In this way it is very similar to the great retailers… Colruyt’s promise to have the lowest prices vs. their competitors for every item they sell in every store” – Holland Views, October 2011

This is nothing extraordinary for a great retail business you might say. But it is the strategy of relative pricing, that of being a price follower that we thought was particularly notable and is very relevant context for understanding Ryanair’s pricing model.

“The first thing long-term readers of ours will notice from the chart above is that Colruyt does not have a margin profile like Wal-Mart and Tesco. i.e. virtually the same margin every single year. Prior to speaking to the company we were a little concerned with this. It appeared that the policy of passing on all operational efficiency to the customer was maybe not a priority as margin increased from 4.5% in 1994 to 7% in 2005. However on further investigation we conclude the difference is purely just in the way they operate. Colruyt promise customers the lowest prices of any retailer they compete against.” – Holland Views, October 2011

Ryanair – a price follower

As the market leader, you would be forgiven for thinking that Ryanair is inevitably a price leader in the industry. We too would have found the comment below from O Leary odd if we had not already come across the Colruyt model.

“I keep stressing, we’re not price setters. We are very much load factor and traffic active and price-passive” – Michael O’Leary, May 2012

In practically all of the best discounters that we follow, most of them lead the competition in dictating prices, yet Colruyt (and now it seems Ryanair) employ a subtle difference – both companies focus on relative pricing, ensuring that their prices are constantly below the competition. If O Leary had said he was “price-passive” 20 years ago, we’d have said this will never work. But in fact it is maybe a highly pragmatic way of optimising pricing in what is a highly commoditised business. By focusing on volumes, minimising absolute costs as aggressively as possible (to ensure a consistently lower per unit cost) then ensuring that prices are sufficiently lower than the competition to win business and fill planned capacity – The only difference now is that with less capacity being added, less price discounting is required to fill it.

As an aside, it is easy perhaps to forget just why volume and scale matters so much. Here is Munger to remind us:

“The very nature of things is that if you get a whole lot of volume through your joint, you get better at processing that volume. That’s an enormous advantage. And it has a lot to do with which businesses succeed and fail….” Charlie Munger

The central point to understand with Ryanair is that their key lever is not really pricing, it is volume. The core objective is to fill seats. This leads to a virtuous circle of increased volume, leading to new routes (with lower airport charges facilitated by higher volumes), leading to lower costs leading to squeezed competitors. This volume, in turn, now drives ancillary revenue opportunities. Obviously the price at which those seats get filled will be a function of the supply/demand balance, competitor rationality and the amount of planned new capacity to fill. Having reviewed the company’s performance since 2010, it is clear to us that Ryanair simply has not changed this successful model, just adjusted it for slower capacity growth.

“We trash a lot of our own yields in a lot of our own markets because you take for example a base like Girona that has six aircraft and we show up and then lob another four aircraft into it. Now it goes to 10 aircraft, all of the routes and fares out of Girona get trashed as a result, but we lock in a much more lower — I’m using Girona, obviously, just as an example — we lock in a much lower cost base at the airport. We blow away the competition. We think we can leverage off that as capacity slows.”  – Michael O’Leary, May 2012

SouthWest – The ‘Elder Statesman’ of the Low-Cost Airline Model

O Leary describes his trip to meet Herb Helleher, founder of SouthWest Airlines 25 years-ago as a ‘Road to Damascus’ moment[5]. Much has been made of the inspiration that O Leary derived from SouthWest in the early days but in fact, Ryanair was quite selective in which parts of the SouthWest model to copy and which to ignore. The decision to use a single aircraft model, point-to-point routes, an obsession about costs and possibly even the advertising tactics were all pioneered by SouthWest. We suggest however that Ryanair refined the SouthWest model slightly by insisting on a more aggressive treatment of employee and union relations and drastically lowered customers’ expectations for customer service.

Fig.7: SouthWest Revenue Growth – 40 years old, but there’s life in the old dog yet

  Source: Holland Advisors

Whilst revenue is arguably not the most relevant performance indicator for an airline (given the low marginal costs, irrational pricing can boost revenues often at the expense of margins and ultimately industry returns) – nevertheless, over a long-term basis it gives useful context for Ryanair’s growth prospects. In the context of a 40-year history it is quite extraordinary the level of revenue growth that SouthWest has managed to maintain. It is important also to note that it continued to grow after its policy of allowing yields to rise in 2001-2002.

Admittedly, SouthWest did spend $3.4bn acquiring AirTran in 2010 which boosts the recent growth, but nonetheless, we still take comfort from this longevity and suggest that it is far too early to suggest that Ryanair is ex-growth. (For the record, Ryanair’s €700m bid for Aer Lingus is much more modest in comparison and equates to about one year of Ryanair EBIT).

Different Attitudes to Pricing?

So far Ryanair and SouthWest have taken a markedly different attitude to pricing particularly in the last decade.

Fig.8: SouthWest vs. Ryanair: 10 years of rising yields v’s two years of rising yields

Source: Holland Advisors

This may be a result of structural issues in their respective home markets[6] or the difference in maturities of both businesses but nevertheless it seems clear to us that while SouthWest deliberately allowed yields to increase (via “revenue management”), Ryanair stayed true to its long-standing strategy of running the business for volume and maintaining relative pricing differentials resulting in the aforementioned -10% compounded annual yield deflation. This clearly suggests that there may be untapped pricing power at Ryanair today. O Leary’s response to a specific question on this point (whether there is untapped pricing power) is noteworthy and confirms the relative pricing aspect of the recent yield strength:

I think over the medium term, our revenue per passenger will rise. I think we’re very much in the same situation Southwest was in 10 or 12 years ago where they enjoyed, I think, 12 or 14 years of yield growth. I think where we’re tempered though in our caution at the moment is we’ve come off 3 years of double-digit yield increases, admittedly from a very low base. A lot of that — remember in our model, we are load factor active, price passive. A lot of the yield growth in the last 12 months has been by virtue of the fact that the European flags have been cutting capacity, raising fares, raising fuel surcharges. I think that will continue, but I think there’s a limit to even their ability to slap on fuel surcharges and raise short haul fares.” – Michael O’Leary, May 2012 (emphasis ours)

Finally, a distinction between Ryanair and SouthWest’s attitude to pricing can be really seen from the two charts below. In any industry, one would expect prices to rise as utilisation (or load factors) rises as has clearly been the case for SouthWest (right). Again confounding conventional business wisdom, Ryanair seems to have kept a lid on pricing despite the rise in its underlying load factor – and without, it is important to add – a major drop in shareholder returns. Why did it do this? We suggest for two reasons, to keep customer loyalty and to fill the 20-30% annual new capacity previously being added. Future less capacity added and stable load factors thus likely point to higher sustainable yields (and possible higher shareholder returns too).

Fig.9: Ryanair suppresses yields despite Load Factor growth

Source: Holland Advisors

The ‘Key Man’ (and his straight talking)

Given his track record on execution, capital allocation, the extent to which his interests are personally aligned with shareholders, (not to mentioned the hugely entertaining array of quotations from him), we feel it is worth devoting a few bullets to the man at the top, Michael O Leary. The following quotes are largely self-explanatory but, as ever, very insightful.

  • O’Leary (who owns about 7% of the equity of the business) clearly understands the power of capital allocation and compounding well.

“Anybody who’s investing in Ryanair for the dividends needs their heads examined. We intend to deliver capital growth. Speaking personally, I have no interest in dividends. I am very interested in getting the share price of this airline up. And we will use the cash and manage it sensibly the next year to try to deliver that result for the benefit of all of our shareholders. And I will be one of the principal beneficiaries by way of a dividend. So you’re not getting one in FY ’12” – Michael O’Leary, January 2011

  • While he has been instrumental in defining the Ryanair culture, it is interesting to hear his own opinion on where his focus lies within the business. We are not convinced that Ryanair is about to morph into a more “caring, sharing” business any time soon!

“…I think I’m important to Ryanair in terms of our growth and airport deals are handled by the wider management team. cost reduction, breaking up the Dublin Airport monopoly, breaking up the BAA monopoly, doing another aircraft deal. That doesn’t need me anymore. I think that at a certain point, once you’ve got those last big conquests: Dublin, Stansted, aircraft, it’s the right time for me to go because Ryanair needs to change from being a cost-aggressive, confrontational airline into being a more corporatey, caring, sharing company by getting rid of the hated chief executive.” – Michel O’Leary, December 2009 (emphasis ours)

  • “We need a recession. We have had 10 years of growth. A recession gets rid of crappy loss-making airlines and it means we can buy aircraft more cheaply.” – Michael O’Leary 2008
  • “Screw the share price, we are in a fare war” – Michael O’Leary, 2004
  • “Our strategy is like Wal-Mart, we pile it high and sell it cheap” – Michael O’Leary, 1994
  • “Air transport is just a glorified bus operation” – Michael O’Leary, 2002
  • “Free tickets. In a decade or so, airlines will pay travellers to distribute people around Europe. The airline industry is Tesco, is Ikea, is network TV in the way viewers watch for free and advertisers pay for access to them, is the internet in the same way that websites earn money for delivering click-through traffic to other sites.” – Michael O’Leary, 2004 (in response to a question on what the ultimate goal of Ryanair is). Our section earlier showing that the group is now loss making excluding ancillary revenue suggests this quote was not as ‘mad’ as it maybe appeared at the time.
Summary + Conclusion

Some investors may observe a quality disparity between the companies we first commented on when identifying great franchises and say Wetherspoon or Ryanair.

Fig. 10: Detailed Cost Comparison (courtesy of EasyJet!)

Source: EasyJet Investor day 2012 presentation

Our reason to look at such companies in more commoditised markets is firstly to show investors that they have (perhaps surprisingly) many of the characteristics we seek and secondly because we have found their cost leadership position over competitors so striking. This we assess is the core strength that sits behind these possible powerful compounding machines and the more we study each of these companies cost advantages and the reason for them, the less we believe that others will be able to displace them. This is shown quite powerfully in the case of Ryanair in the preceding chart. Interestingly this data came from an Easyjet presentation!

We summarise our assessment of Ryanair as a franchise thus:

  • Ryanair ticks most of the ‘operate’, ‘generate’ and ‘allocate’ boxes that we seek-out in a franchise: it has the lowest unit costs by far in the industry, a commensurately wide moat, is innovative, enjoys material working-capital inflows and allocates capital like an owner.
  • The valuation of 11.5x P/E (9.3x EV/EBIT) arguably gives a pretty good margin of safety in that it pessimistically implies the recent capacity slowdown will structurally dilute Ryanair’s future returns. We argue the business is as aggressive as ever and its relative strength remains intact.
  • After closer consideration we are relaxed about the recent uptick in yields and do not see the business model as diminished in any way as a result. In fact we would not be surprised to see the business in time pragmatically allow yields to rise further. For investors, such upside is, in effect, ‘optionality’ given the structural cost advantages of the business that already exist and the reasonable return it already generates for investors
  • However this investment does come with the major health warning that its industry and our great inspirer suggests. Does the fact that it is an airline negate all of appealing traits listed above, we think not. Never say ‘never’.

Andrew Hollingworth, Mark Power and Ramsey Craine

*For those interested ‘War of Attrition’ was the name of Michael O’Leary’s winning racehorse

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This document does not consist of investment research as it has not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Therefore even if it contains a research recommendation it should be treated as a marketing communication and as such will be fair, clear and not misleading in line with Financial Services Authority (FSA) rules. Holland Advisors is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). This presentation is intended for institutional investors and high net worth experienced investors who understand the risks involved with the investment being promoted within this document. This communication should not be distributed to anyone other than the intended recipients and should not be relied upon by retail clients (as defined by FSA). This communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, re-distributed or passed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose. This communication is provided for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. Any opinions cited in this communication are subject to change without notice. This communication is not a personal recommendation to you. Holland Advisors takes all reasonable care to ensure that the information is accurate and complete; however no warranty, representation, or undertaking is given that it is free from inaccuracies or omissions. This communication is based on and contains current public information, data, opinions, estimates and projections obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The content of this communication may have been disclosed to the issuer(s) prior to dissemination in order to verify its factual accuracy. Investments in general involve some degree of risk therefore Prospective Investors should be aware that the value of any investment may rise and fall and you may get back less than you invested. Value and income may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates and other factors. The investment discussed in this communication may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries and may not be suitable for all investors. If you are unsure about the suitability of this investment given your financial objectives, resources and risk appetite, please contact your financial advisor before taking any further action. This document is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. Holland Advisors and/or its officers, directors and employees may have or take positions in securities or derivatives mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time dispose of any such securities (or instrument). Holland Advisors manage conflicts of interest in regard to this communication internally via their compliance procedures.

  1. ASM: Available Seat Miles = (number of seats available) * (number of miles those seats were flown) ↑
  2. ASM: Available Seat Miles “represents the number of seats available for passengers multiplied by the number of miles those seats were flown” (source: Ryanair) ↑
  3. Ancillary Sales: 1) Non-Flight Scheduled (excess baggage, credit card fees, rail/bus tickets, travel insurance, car rental), 2) In-flight & 3) Internet (commissions from website sales) ↑
  4. EasyJet and Ryanair data both in €c ↑
  5. And we’ve always suspected a predecessor of Terry Leahy made a similar trip to Arkansas ↑
  6. Notably, the ‘natural attrition’ of some European airlines was not replicated in the US due to Chapter 11 derived reincarnations. ↑

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The Information does not take account of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person and is not general advice to any class of persons. Therefore, you should not rely on the Information and should obtain relevant and specific professional advice in making any investment decision. Furthermore, nothing on this Website constitutes or should be construed to constitute: (i) an offer, advice, invitation or solicitation from us or our affiliates to buy or sell any investments or securities, futures, options or other financial instruments; (ii) an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity or a financial promotion of any kind; or (iii) investment advice or recommendation. 4. Stock exchange prices and exchange rates The prices/values shown on this Website in relation to different underlying securities are based on the prices notified to Holland Advisors (London) Ltd as the last sale price of the relevant securities on the stock exchange on which they are traded as at the time and date shown. Those figures may vary throughout the course of, and between, stock exchange trading days, market trading times and business days in general. Holland Advisors (London) Ltd has not verified the figures with the relevant stock exchange and you should verify the accuracy of those figures separately before relying on them. 5. Permitted users of the Website The laws and regulations of the country from which you access this Website may include restrictions on the distribution of the Information. This Website is not directed at or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that jurisdiction’s applicable securities laws, person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) such distribution, publication, availability or use of this Website or any part of its contents would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or would subject Holland Advisors (London) Ltd to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If you are such a person or entity, you are not authorised to enter the Website. It is your responsibility to ensure that your use of this Website complies with any restrictions or any applicable local laws regarding use of the Information on this Website. Persons or entities in respect of whom such restrictions apply must not access the relevant pages on this Website. The Information displayed on this Website contains material that may be interpreted by the relevant authorities in the country where you are viewing this Website as a financial promotion or an offer to purchase securities. Accordingly, if you reside in any such country or fall within the scope of any law that seeks to regulate financial promotions in the country of your residence or in the country in which you are viewing this Website, please cease accessing or using this Website immediately. If you are uncertain about your position under the laws of the country in which you are viewing this Website, then you should seek clarification by obtaining legal advice from a lawyer practicing in the country of your residence or in the country in which you are viewing this Website before accessing this Website. You may not use any part of the material or Information on this Website to establish, maintain or provide or assist in establishing, maintaining or providing a stock market for trading in securities. 6. Investment Performance and Accuracy of Information The Site contains material about the past performance of our Funds. The value of an investment in a Fund may go up as well down so that an investor’s investment in a Fund, when redeemed, may be more or less than the original investment amount. By its nature, investment in a Fund managed by Holland Advisors (London) Ltd is only suitable for sophisticated investors who do not require immediate liquidity for their investment, for whom an investment in a Fund does not constitute a complete investment programme and who fully understand and are willing to assume the high risk involved in the investment programme of a Fund. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY INVESTMENT, INVESTMENT STRATEGY OR INVESTMENT STYLE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. Whilst the information contained on the Website has been given in good faith and every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, the Information may not be complete or accurate for your purposes. This Website and the Information is provided on an “as is” basis and Holland Advisors (London) Ltd may not, and has no obligation to, update the Information or correct any inaccuracy which subsequently becomes apparent. The Information and/or opinions and estimates comprised in the Information may be changed or withdrawn without notice and may become outdated. You, therefore, should verify any information or other material obtained from this Website before you use it. HOLLAND ADVISORS (LONDON) LTD, ITS DIRECTORS OR OFFICERS DISCLAIM ALL REPRESENTATIONS AND WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BY WAY OF EXAMPLE BUT NOT LIMITATION AS TO RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, FITNESS FOR PURPOSE OR ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION ON THIS WEBSITE OR ON ANY THIRD PARTY WEBSITE LINKED TO THIS WEBSITE. IN ADDITION, WE DO NOT REPRESENT OR WARRANT THAT THIS WEBSITE OR THE SERVERS THAT MAKE THE WEBSITE AVAILABLE WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, ERROR FREE, OR FREE FROM INFECTION, VIRUSES, WORMS OR ANY OTHER HARMFUL CODE WHICH MAY HAVE CONTAMINATING OR DESTRUCTIVE PROPERTIES. YOU ARE FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ENSURING PROTECTIVE STEPS TO BE TAKEN SUCH AS VIRUS CHECKING. The Information is assembled from material prepared by Holland Advisors (London Ltd) or its agents but may not include Information made known to Holland Advisors (London) Ltd officers (or agents) subsequent to the date of publication of the Information indicated on the Website. If you use the Information, you do so at your own risk. Please recognise that the previous performance of securities or other instruments does not guarantee or predict future performance. 7. Exclusion of liability TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, HOLLAND ADVISORS (LONDON) LTD ACCEPT NO LIABILITY TO YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY FOR ANY LOSSES OR DAMAGES, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, DIRECT OR INDIRECT DAMAGES, CONSEQUENTIAL OR SPECIAL DAMAGES, LOSS OF USE, DATA OR PROFITS, COSTS OR EXPENSES INCURRED OR SUFFERED BY YOU OR THIRD PARTY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT OR DUE TO NEGLIGENCE OR OTHER TORTIOUS ACTION, ARISING OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE ACCESS TO, USE OF, RELIANCE ON, OR PERFORMANCE OF THIS WEBSITE OR ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE, WHETHER DUE TO INACCURACY, ERROR, OMISSION OR ANY OTHER CAUSE AND WHETHER ON THE PART OF US, OUR SERVANTS, AGENTS OR ANY OTHER PERSON. NOTHING IN THE TERMS OF USE EXCLUDES, RESTRICTS OR MODIFIES ANY CONDITION, WARRANTY OR LIABILITY WHICH MAY AT ANY TIME BE IMPLIED BY STATUTE OR ANY OTHER APPLICABLE LAW WHERE TO DO SO IS ILLEGAL OR WOULD RENDER ANY PROVISION OF AN AGREEMENT VOID. 8. Third Party Websites We may provide, on our Website, links to websites operated by third parties as a convenience to you. If you use these other sites, you will leave this Website. If you decide to visit any linked site, you do so at your own risk and it is your responsibility to take all protective measures to guard against viruses or other destructive elements. Holland Advisors (London) Ltd makes no representations, warranties or guarantees of any kind about any of the content of any other website which you may access by hypertext link through this Website. When you access any other website by means of a link from this Website, you should understand that your access to that other website is independent of Holland Advisors (London) Ltd and Holland Advisors (London) Ltd has no control over the content of the website, nor does Holland Advisors (London) Ltd in any way endorse or approve the content of that website. In no event will Holland Advisors (London) Ltd in any way be liable to you or any other person(s) or organisation(s) for loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential, special or other) for any use of any site linked to it by means of hypertext or otherwise. 9. Indemnity You agree to indemnify Holland Advisors (London) Ltd and its officers from and against any claim brought by third parties against Holland Advisors (London) Ltd and its officers as a consequence of your breach of the Terms of Use. Furthermore, if your use of this Website results in the need for servicing, repair or correction of equipment, software or data, you assume all costs thereof. 10. Intellectual Property Rights and Licence The copyright, trade mark or any other intellectual property rights in the Website and the Information are owned by or licensed to Holland Advisors (London) Ltd. You may download or print out a hard copy of individual pages and/or sections of this Website provided you do not remove any copyright or other proprietary notices. Any downloading or other copying from this Website will not transfer title to any software or material to you. You may not reproduce (in whole or in part), transmit (by electronic means or otherwise), modify, link to or use for any public or commercial purpose this Website without the prior written permission of Holland Advisors (London) Ltd. Any rights not expressly granted in the Terms of Use are reserved. 11. Operation of the Website You should be aware that the internet, being an open network, is not secure. If you choose to send any electronic communications by means of this Website, you do so at your own risk. Holland Advisors (London) Ltd cannot guarantee that such communications will not be intercepted or changed or that they will reach the intended recipient safely. 12. Privacy Any personal data relating to you will be collected, used and recorded by us in accordance with current data protection legislation, the Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy. You must read our Privacy Policy as it forms part of the Terms of Use. 13. Governing law The Terms of Use are governed by the laws of England and Wales and the courts of England and Wales will have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under them. 14. Waiver If you breach the Terms of Use and we take no action, we will still be entitled to use our rights and remedies in any other situation where you breach the Terms of Use. 15. Our details This website is owned and operated by Holland Advisors London Ltd. You can contact us at: Holland Advisors London Ltd, The Granary, 1 Waverley Lane, Farnham, Surrey, GU9 8BB. Updated and effective as of  31st March 2024
Disclaimer
Please read the following conditions of use of this website. This website is directed at high net worth experienced investors and institutional investors who understand the risks involved with the investments being promoted and it should not be relied upon by retail clients (as defined by Financial Conduct Authority). The information on this website is issued by Holland Advisors (London) Limited (hereafter referred to as “Holland Advisors”), a limited liability company (7431314) incorporated in England and Wales, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 538932). This website is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, funds or any other financial instrument. The information is directed inside the United Kingdom and is not directed at any persons in jurisdictions where it would be against local law or regulation.  In particular, information on this site is not directed at any person, partnership or corporation being resident in the United States of America. Holland Advisors disclaims all responsibility if you access or download any information in breach of any law or regulation of the country in which you reside. Information on this site The information provided does not constitute advice. Holland Advisors believes that the sources of the information in this website are reliable. However it cannot and does not guarantee, either expressly or implicitly, and accepts no liability for, the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data (whether prepared by it or by any third party) for any particular purpose or use or that the information or data will be free from error. Holland Advisors does not undertake any responsibility for any reliance which is placed by any person on any statements or opinions which are expressed herein. Neither Holland Advisors nor any of its directors, officers or employees will be liable or have any responsibility of any kind for any loss or damage that any person may incur resulting from the use of this information. This does not exclude or restrict any duty of liability that Holland Advisors has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom. All Information may be changed or amended without prior notice although Holland Advisors does not undertake to update this site regularly. Marketing Communications Documents on this site do not constitute investment research as they have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Therefore, even if they contain research recommendations they should be treated as marketing communications and as such will be fair, clear and not misleading in line with Financial Conduct Authority rules. These communications are not personal recommendations to you and any opinions cited are subject to change without notice. Holland Advisors takes all reasonable care to ensure that the information on this site is accurate and complete; however no warranty, representation, or undertaking is given that it is free from inaccuracies or omissions. Documents on this site are based on, and contain, current public information, data, opinions, estimates and projections obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The content of these documents may have been disclosed to the issuer(s) prior to dissemination in order to verify their factual accuracy. Investments in general involve some degree of risk, therefore Prospective Investors should be aware that the value of any investment may rise and fall and you may get back less than you invested. Value and income may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates and other factors. The investments discussed on this website may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries and may not be suitable for all investors. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment given your financial objectives, resources and risk appetite, please contact your financial advisor before taking any further action. Holland Advisors and/or its officers, directors and employees may have or take positions in securities, funds or derivatives mentioned on this site (or in any related investment) and may from time to time dispose of any such securities (or instrument). Holland Advisors manages these potential conflicts of interest internally via its compliance procedures. Fund Information Parts of this site may refer to Funds managed or advised by Holland Advisors. These are not solicitations to invest and any potential investors should refer to the “Our Funds” section of the website in order to learn more about these Funds and find out how and where to obtain the relevant full legal documentation. Linked Websites This site may be linked to third party websites or contain information provided by third parties. Holland Advisors does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such websites or information, has not and will not review or update such websites or information, and cautions browsers that any use made of such websites or information is at their own risk. Holland Advisors does not accept any liability arising out of the information contained on any linked website or Information provided by a third party and the use of such sites and information is at your own risk. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Holland Advisors has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom. Indemnity You agree to indemnify and defend Holland Advisors, its affiliates and licensors, and the officers, directors, employees, and agents of Holland Advisors and its affiliates and licensors, from and against any and all claims, liabilities, damages, losses, or expenses, including legal fees and costs, arising out of or in any way connected with your access to or use of this website and the Information. Use of Cookies If you agree to these terms and conditions a “cookie” might be placed on your computer. A cookie is a packet of information that does not identify individual users of a website, but allows the collection of website activity (such as the number of users who visit our website, the date and time of visits, the number of pages viewed, navigation patterns, what country and what systems users have used to access the site). We can use this information for statistical purposes, which allows us to analyse and improve our website. The cookie will expire automatically after 6 months or you can manually remove cookies in your browser settings. Copyright, Trademarks and Other Rights Copyright, trademarks, database rights, patents and all similar rights in this site and the information contained in it are owned by Holland Advisors or relevant third party providers. You may use the Information and reproduce it in hard copy for your personal reference only. The information contained herein and any supplemental documentation provided is confidential and should not be copied, reproduced or redistributed without the prior consent of Holland Advisors. Governing Law You agree that your use of this site and any dispute arising from this use is subject to English law and you submit to the jurisdiction of the Courts of England & Wales.
Privacy Notice
This is the privacy notice of Holland Advisors London Ltd our company number is 07431314. Our registered office is at The Halt, Smugglers Way, The Sands, Farnham, Surrey, GU10 1NB.
Introduction
This notice describes how we collect, store, transfer and use personal data. It tells you about your privacy rights and how the law protects you. In the context of the law and this notice, ‘personal data’ is information that clearly identifies you as an individual or which could be used to identify you if combined with other information. Acting in any way on personal data is referred to as ‘processing’. This notice applies to personal data collected through our website www.hollandadvisors.co.uk. Except as set out below, we do not share, or sell, or disclose to a third party, any information collected through our website.
Data Protection Officer
We have appointed a data protection officer (‘DPO’) who is responsible for ensuring that our privacy policy is followed. If you have any questions about how we process your personal data, including any requests to exercise your legal rights, please contact our DPO, Claire Brunt at  claire@hollandadvisors.co.uk.
Personal data we process
1. How we obtain personal data The information we process about you includes information:
  • you have directly provided to us
  • that we gather from third party databases and service providers
  • as a result of monitoring how you use our website or our services
2. Types of personal data we collect directly When you use our website, you may provide personal data by submission of data by our Sign Up or Contact Us forms. This can be categorised into the following groups:
  • personal identifiers, such as your first and last names
  • contact information, such as your email address and your telephone number for communication
  • records of communication between us including messages sent through our website, email messages and telephone conversations
  • marketing preferences that tell us what types of marketing you would like to receive
3. Types of personal data we collect from your use of our services By using our website and our services, we process:
  • technical information about the hardware and the software you use to access our website and use our services, including your Internet Protocol (IP) address, your browser type and version and your device’s operating system
  • usage information, including the frequency you use our services, the pages of our website that you visit, whether you receive messages from us and whether you reply to those messages
  • your preferences to receive marketing from us; how you wish to communicate with us; and responses and actions in relation to your use of our services.
4. Our use of aggregated information We may aggregate anonymous information such as statistical or demographic data for any purpose. Anonymous information is that which does not identify you as an individual. Aggregated information may be derived from your personal data but is not considered as such in law because it does not reveal your identity. For example, we may aggregate usage information to assess whether a feature of our website is useful. However, if we combine or connect aggregated information with your personal data so that it can identify you in any way, we treat the combined information as personal data, and it will be used in accordance with this privacy notice. 5. The bases on which we process information about you The law requires us to determine under which of six defined bases we process different categories of your personal data, and to notify you of the basis for each category. If a basis on which we process your personal data is no longer relevant then we shall immediately stop processing your data. If the basis changes then if required by law we shall notify you of the change and of any new basis under which we have determined that we can continue to process your information. 6. Information we process with your consent Through certain actions when there is no contractual relationship between us, such as when you browse our website or ask us to provide you more information about our business, you provide your consent to us to process information that may be personal data. Wherever possible, we aim to obtain your explicit consent to process this information, for example, we ask you to agree to our use of non-essential cookies when you access our website. We continue to process your information on this basis until you withdraw your consent or it can be reasonably assumed that your consent no longer exists. You may withdraw your consent at any time by instructing us  claire@hollandadvisors.co.uk. 7. Information we process for the purposes of legitimate interests We may process information on the basis there is a legitimate interest, either to you or to us, of doing so. Where we process your information on this basis, we do after having given careful consideration to:
  • whether the same objective could be achieved through other means
  • whether processing (or not processing) might cause you harm
  • whether you would expect us to process your data, and whether you would, in the round, consider it reasonable to do so
For example, we may process your data on this basis for the purposes of:
  • improving our services
  • record-keeping for the proper and necessary administration of our business
  • responding to unsolicited communication from you to which we believe you would expect a response
  • preventing fraudulent use of our services
  • exercising our legal rights, including to detect and prevent fraud and to protect our intellectual property
  • insuring against or obtaining professional advice that is required to manage business risk
  • protecting your interests where we believe we have a duty to do so
How and when we process your personal data
8. Your personal data is not shared We do not share or disclose to a third party, any information collected through our website.
Use of information we collect through automated systems
9. Cookies Cookies are small text files that are placed on your computer’s hard drive by your web browser when you visit a website that uses them. They allow information gathered on one web page to be stored until it is needed for use at a later date. They are commonly used to provide you with a personalised experience while you browse a website, for example, allowing your preferences to be remembered. They can also provide core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility; record how you interact with the website so that the owner can understand how to improve the experience of other visitors. Some cookies may last for a defined period of time, such as one visit (known as a session), one day or until you close your browser. Others last indefinitely until you delete them. Your web browser should allow you to delete any cookie you choose. It should also allow you to prevent or limit their use. Your web browser may support a plug-in or add-on that helps you manage which cookies you wish to allow to operate. The law requires you to give explicit consent for use of any cookies that are not strictly necessary for the operation of a website. 10. Personal identifiers from your browsing activity Requests by your web browser to our servers for web pages and other content on our website are recorded. We record information such as your geographical location, your Internet service provider and your IP address. We also record information about the software you are using to browse our website, such as the type of computer or device and the screen resolution. We use this information in aggregate to assess the popularity of the webpages on our website and how we perform in providing content to you.
Other matters
11. Your rights The law requires us to tell you about your rights and our obligations to you in regard to the processing and control of your personal data. We do this now, by requesting that you read the information provided at  http://www.knowyourprivacyrights.org 12. Communicating with us When you contact us, whether by telephone, through our website or by email, we collect the data you have given to us in order to reply with the information you need. We record your request and our reply in order to increase the efficiency of our business. We may keep personally identifiable information associated with your message, such as your name and email address so as to be able to track our communications with you to provide a high quality service. 13. Complaining If you are not happy with our privacy policy, or if you have any complaint, then you should tell us. When we receive a complaint, we record the information you have given to us on the basis of consent. We use that information to resolve your complaint. 14. Retention period Except as otherwise mentioned in this privacy notice, we keep your personal data only for as long as required by us to provide you with the services you have requested. 15. Compliance with the law Our privacy policy complies with the law in the United Kingdom, specifically with the Data Protection Act 2018 (the ‘Act’) accordingly incorporating the EU General Data Protection Regulation (‘GDPR’) and the Privacy and Electronic Communications Regulations (‘PECR’). 16. Review of this privacy policy We shall update this privacy notice from time to time as necessary.

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